Climate Change Forecast: When Cities Will Hit 'Tipping Point'

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Climate Change Forecast: When Cities Will Hit 'Tipping Point'

By Becky Oskin, Staff Writer   |   October 09, 2013 01:00pm ET

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Estimated dates of coming climate extremes under the RCP8.5 model, which projects today's levels of carbon dioxide emissions continuing through 2100. Credit: Camilo Mora et al./Nature View full size image

For the first time, researchers have pinpointed when global warming will become the norm in the world's capitals.
This list of cities shows each one's tipping point: the year when local temperatures will exceed historical extremes recorded in the past 150 years. The dates reflect two carbon emission scenarios. The first, RCP8.5, assumes no change in global carbon output by 2100. The second, RCP4.5, is a moderate rollback in carbon dioxide emissions.
The predictions come from a meta-analysis by University of Hawaii, Manoa, geographer Camilo Mora and his co-authors — all University of Hawaii students — of 39 climate models independently developed by climate scientists from 12 countries. A meta-analysis is a statistical approach that gathers existing research and examines trends in the data. Their findings were published Oct. 9 in the journal Nature. A full list of cities and a searchable world map is online at the University of Hawaii.

COUNTRY	CITY	RCP8.5	RCP4.5
Australia	Perth	2042	2072
Brazil	Rio de Janeiro	2050	2079
Chile	Santiago	2043	2071
China	Beijing	2046	2078
Colombia	Bogotá	2033	2047
Egypt	Cairo	2036	2057
Iceland	Reykjavik	2066	2084
India	Mumbai	2034	2051
Indonesia	Jakarta	2029	2042
Indonesia	Manokwari	2020	2025
Iraq	Baghdad	2036	2055
Italy	Rome	2044	2067
Japan	Tokyo	2041	2067
Kenya	Nairobi	2036	2058
Mexico	Mexico City	2031	2050
Nigeria	Lagos	2029	2043
Russia	Moscow	2063	2092
South Africa	Pretoria	2043	2068
Thailand	Bangkok	2046	2070
UK	London	2056	2088
USA	Anchorage	2071	2095
USA	Honolulu	2043	2067
USA	New York City	2047	2072
USA	Orlando	2046	2074
USA	San Francisco	2049	2074
USA	Washington	2047	2071